18 January 2010

Elbadawi on the "Game" between Juba and Khartoum

I think the outcome is likely to be one of two extreme: should the broad coalition succeed [between SPLM and northern opposition parties], I think we will have a post-conflict democracy that might succeed in keeping the country united, or at least deliver a peaceful confederal system between north and south; or, instead, we could have an inter-state war followed by very conflictive relationship between the two nascent Sudanese states. In this context both the ICC threat hanging over the President of Sudan and the vulnerability of the south would, in my view, tip the balance of power in the NCP toward the hardliners, who favor confrontation with the SPLM and suppression of the northern opposition.
via Shanta Devarajan, World Bank Chief Economist for Africa.

The original paper here.

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