The fastest growing city in Africa

Is the claim of a fascinating new paper on Juba by Richard Grant and Daniel Thompson (HT: Sean Fox).

Juba, the capital of South Sudan, is the fastest growing city in Africa, exhibiting the most rapid urban expansion and growth ever to take place in the region. Despite its explosive demographic and infrastructural expansion, the urban explosion has received virtually no attention from urban scholars.

since 2005 [Juba] recorded spectacular urban expansion: at upwards of 12.5% per annum, the city’s growth is among the fastest rates of urbanization in human history. [Population] has more than doubled in the past seven years to at least 500,000-600,000 by 2012.

On the urban economy:

The sudden and massive influx of development aid and investment drives local property and consumer markets 

Juba functions within a highly unequal cash economy: while Juba can be among the most expensive cities in Africa (for example US$200 for a basic hotel room and seasonal food price hikes); simultaneously, subsistence wild food harvesting is necessary for many food-insecure urbanites.

On urban livelihoods:

the urban poor concentrate on firewood collection, informal construction (digging pit latrines, stone breaking, and mudding traditional dwellings), charcoal making (exacerbating deforestation), petty trade (tea and food selling), motorcycle taxi (boda-boda) driving, and brewing alcohol.

And on rural "land grabs":

analyses showing approximately 5% of total land is under cultivation 

Between 2007 and 2010, 8% of South Sudan’s total land area was acquired by international private interests (firms from the US, Egypt, UAE, and UK are the largest investors)

The Worst Hotel in the World?

“Woeful and disgusting”
“Don't Ever Stay Here”
“Thankfully it has burnt down!!”
“God awful place”
“it´s not even Juba-good”

From TripAdvisor.com (HT: TvV)

A few weeks after observing part of this place going up in thick black smoke from a window in the Ministry of Finance, I went there to watch some football or something, and saw the biggest scramble of wires and leads and adapters and extension cords suspended precariously down a wall, that I have ever seen. "Fire-hazard" doesn't even come close.

Mental illness in Juba

This is a photo by Hannah McNeish of a mentally ill lady abandoned by her family and locked up in Juba Prison, where

"she receives no psychiatric drugs or any other care. In a city described quite aptly yesterday as "an aid orgy" that the journos claimed surpasses Kabul and Eastern DRC, it's horrible to know that there are around 50 people trapped in dark and dirty cells in the capital going slowly madder as there is no money for medicine."

I saw something similar in a slum in Nairobi. Winding through a dark dirty crowded maze of alleys and dwellings I caught a glimpse of what seemed to be a person locked in a small dark room. I was in a hurry and it wasn't the safest part of town so I didn't stop to ask questions but it creeped the hell out of me. Here is more from Hannah on prisoners in Juba.

Johannesburg in the 1890s

That's the verdict of South African journalists Kevin Bloom and Richard Poplak on arrival in Juba. Like Johannesburg in the 1890s. " We have never seen an aid orgy like this one - not in Kabul, not in eastern DRC, nowhere." 

↬ TH

The State of the Game between Juba and Khartoum

I continue to be fascinated by the nature of the strategic interaction between Juba and Khartoum, without really pretending to understand it very well. As it turns out, Juba's strategy seems to be push ahead with a Kenya pipeline whilst resuming export through North Sudan in the meantime, to give them an alternative option. So what is Khartoum's optimal response to such a move?

A friend suggests that Khartoum's strategy is to continue to create chaos in Jonglei (South Sudan) in order to disrupt future exploration, knowing that a Kenyan pipeline would not be economically viable without further discoveries.

I thought I'd also email someone who is an actual game theory expert, who makes the interesting point that - a little counter-intuitively - it may actually be in Khartoum's interest to encourage the development of a Kenya pipeline, as a way of credibly committing themselves to continued future cooperation on mutually favourable terms.

Paraphrasing the words of the great philosopher Sting, “If Someone Does Not Trust You, Set Them Free“.

Secretaries without borders

Secretaries without borders is what a colleague joked that the government in Juba needed a few years ago. My friends and colleagues Ben French and Nick Travis have a great post up on the new ODI blog beyondbudgets.org making this point in a bit more detail;

Investment is not just needed in getting the policy ‘right’ but also in making the ‘paper move’. Money needs to be spent on building the capacity of governments to maintain basic administrative and management processes, on training administrators and establishing functional IT systems. No matter how good policies are, without the basics in place - and the people to administer them - implementation will continue to be hindered by chaotic and ineffectual management.

Well worth reading in full. They have also just published a couple of briefing notes on the new government Aid Strategy in South Sudan and the 2009 Donor-Government compact. 

Mud huts and hummers

V: Hows juba?? Changed beyond recognition?! 

Me: Meh. Lotsa new roads and buildings but fundamentally the same! 

V: Fundamentally still a collection of mud huts and hummers?

Which pretty much sums it up. Perhaps the most impressive part for me was being able to buy a visa on arrival. But it was very nice to visit. The whole carry-on-as-if-there-was-no-oil-shutdown-thing felt a bit like the cartoon Wile E. Coyote going over the edge of a cliff but not quite realising it or starting to fall yet. Perhaps a reason for optimism that there is something going on that we all don't know about, and there will in fact be a deal? Inshallah. Also, hopefully we'll be allowed to share the note from my trip at some point.

UNDP is hiring an international fitness instructor for its Juba staff

Update: Samer Abu Hawilih states in the comments that this is "not funded by UNDP or donor funds. This is a staff-led initiative, through the Staff Association and Wellbeing Office." Thanks for the clarification Samer.

"international personnel are placed in non-family posts in South Sudan under hardship conditions, displacing them from their culture and normal support networks. 

All personnel are struggling to cope with the chronic stress of working within a post-conflict environment in which few counseling, social support, and other support and recreational services are available. Of particular concern is the need to help staff deal with traumatic stress, chronic stress, communication and resolution of interpersonal conflicts, multi- and cross-cultural diversity, and alcohol and substance abuse education. 

UNDP South Sudan recognizes that counseling services and recreational facilities and activities should be part of the staff wellbeing initiative. Resolving problems, exercise and dealing with personal and work issues is an important part of a staff member’s wellbeing. Therefore, we are seeking to recruit a fitness Instructor to assist in providing exercises as part of the wellbeing of staff in order to ensure work/life balance, which is another important referral service for staff members."

UNDP Jobs (HT: TvV)

I have no words (at least none that it would be prudent to express here).

Compare and contrast with Oxfam deciding not to use its Nairobi swimming pool because of worries about media and public opinion back home in the UK. Spot the difference. 

East African etiquette

One of my favourite Juba-things, which is apparently also a Kenya-thing, is hand-shaking. You always shake hands with the people you meet, all the time, every person in the room, no matter how long it takes.

There's also a great rule for when you are eating, or your hands are otherwise dirty - just offer a wrist instead. Simple, and avoids that English awkwardness where you don't know what to do. I'm bringing it back to England. Who's with me?

Hold on to your hats

So Juba has decided to stop oil production in South Sudan, in protest of Khartoum theft. Pre-independence, revenues from the South were split 50:50, and Khartoum have basically been trying to continue that by imposing arbitrary fees, asking for up to $30 per barrel (Juba claims that normal prices for pipeline transit fees in other countries are around $1 per barrel).

So now we have a war of attrition. Which side can afford to last out the longest before making a compromise? Who has the largest cash reserves relative to their recurrent spending demands? The numbers are probably not in the public domain, but Khartoum does at least have some other sources of revenue. Revenues in Juba must basically be zero now. But then Juba does probably have a more sympathetic population who seem to be behind the decision, and therefore with perhaps a greater appetite for dramatic spending cuts than citizens in Khartoum. Good luck Juba, and I pray this ends peacefully.

Do chime in if you have any insights.

Update: Alex de Waal notes that if the pipes are shut, it will take 6 months to get oil flowing again. The last chance to come to a deal is apparently Friday when Bashir and Kiir meet in Addis Ababa. 

"B-roll" footage from South Sudan Emerging

Some really beautiful shots here from around Juba by Jon Shuler. I'm really looking forward to the final film. Follow Jon on Twitter @jonshuler.


B-Roll from South Sudan Emerging from Jonathan Shuler on Vimeo.

The State of the Juba Blogosphere

Not really, but I did just come across the rather entertaining Erin In Juba. It has home-made pictures!

Definitely the best diary of a Spanish freelance journalist in Juba right now

For those of us who came to Africa looking for otherness and new things to discover and explore (again: that whole ‘changing the world bullshit’ is, well, bullshit), Juba is still a good place, compared for example to the boring normality of Nairobi or (a bit less) Kampala. Juba still has exotic things, is very poor and underdeveloped, there’s no much tarmac and you feel you’re risking your life just by not wearing a helmet and being driven around by 13-year-old crazy boda (mototaxi) drivers who may be high on some shit. In fact, we journalists in Africa like to feel we are risking our lives but we don’t like to actually risk our lives. We just want to have stories to tell other journalist and to tell normal, boring people back home.

Very funny throughout. 

South Sudan to build new capital

via a blog post, and about 14 different people on twitter (THIS is how I get my news these days??!!!).

In the resolution passed on Friday in the Council of Ministers meeting chaired by President Salva Kiir Mayardit, the government reached the decision to relocate the capital to a "befitting" new location elsewhere in the South.

I mainly think this is a terrible idea because I have spent a lot of time staring at Ministry budgets which manage to fit in little else besides brand new buildings and salaries. And they will now have to start all over again with the new buildings. Will they be able to find buyers for all the old ones? Probably not from the private sector but perhaps some of the aid organisations still working from containers?

Hopefully this new capital will be on the outskirts of Juba as a friend suggested, which would at least save having to build new roads (a brand new tarmac road - the first highway in Southern Sudan - is also currently being built from Kampala to Juba).

I blame America, and Washington D.C., for giving Salva bad ideas. 

The Final Countdown

After much coaxing, my friend Maggie Fick finally has her own website. Essential Southern Sudan reportage. This photo of hers is of the new (presently inaccurate) electronic referendum countdown clock in Juba.

What are the odds of my “New Sudan Driving Permit” being accepted in the UK or US?

  

Note: “New Sudan” was the name used by the SPLM to refer to  the “liberated areas” in the South prior to the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Before the creation of the “Government of Southern Sudan”, there was a “Civil Administration for New Sudan”.

Markets not in Everything

This morning I stopped by the side of the road to put some air in my car tyres. The mechanic asked me if I would know how to sell his kidney in the UK. Erm..

Best (Worst?) Juba t-shirt slogan seen this week:

 

HOME is HOPE built

in my HEART

 

What the *? Doesn’t even come close to OBAMA.

The Child Labour Market in Juba

This chart comes from a fascinating new report on Child workers in Juba.

Economic Activities of Children working on the streets in Juba.

I’m really torn on whether it is a good idea to give money to these kids or not. They are usually around outside the Ministries washing cars, and polishing shoes at the local cafes. It seems like a classic aid problem of weighing the direct benefit vs the indirect harm. Is the meal today worth more than the disincentive to attend school?

I’ve tried to do a bit of homework (er, googling), and one of the foremost experts on the economics of child labour seems to be Kaushik Basu, previously a professor at Princeton and now Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India (he has written a book on the subject - see here for the review on Marginal Revolution). Sadly though all I can really find are government policy recommendations, with no suggestions for the concerned individual (although there are some general concerns about potentially perverse impacts of well-meaning trade boycotts at the national level.

Any ideas?

Finally back to that report. It doesn’t tell us how many of their interviewees just work on the streets, and how many live there too. It doesn’t tell us how the questions were worded. It doesn’t have any cross-tabulations. Next time I would recommend paying a visit to the SSCCSE for some statistical advice.

The Campaign for Southern Sudanese Independence begins

Some great photos by Pete Muller